Prediction and decision

Peirce and the science of the method

• The historical article which Peirce first proposed 'the science of the method'.
  • Peirce's proposal was related to Finley's tornade forecasts which is discussed in the Stephenson's article in the next section.

Peirce, C. S. (1884). The Numerical Measure of the Success of Predictions. Science, ns-4(93), 453–454. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ns-4.93.453.b

• A review of Peirce's 'the science of the method' and Youden's index which is the identical methodology to the Peirce's method.

Baker, S. G., & Kramer, B. S. (2007). Peirce, youden, and receiver operating characteristic curves. American Statistician, 61(4), 343–346. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313007X247643

Skill scores of predictions

• Investigation of '(forecast) skill scores', which measure accuracy or quality of different forecasting methods, from the view point of meterology.
  • Referring to Peirce skill score.

Stephenson, D. B. (2000). Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill. Weather and Forecasting, 15(2), 221–232. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0221:UOTORF>2.0.CO;2

Peirce as a logician

• Peirce was originally a logician and the article discusses about his 'methodology of science'

赤川元昭. (2011). パースと科学の方法. 流通科学大学論集－流通・経営編－, 23(2), 75–90.